Macroeconomic policy / 'Economic Outlook'
The Economic Outlook is our twice-yearly review of recent economic developments and projection of future economic developments. It is based on input from our member federations across Europe.
Our Spring 2018 Economic Outlook highlights that businesses are increasingly concerned that EU growth is at risk of peaking.
- For 2018, we expect GDP growth of 2.4% in the EU and 2.3% in the Euro-area. For 2019, we expect growth to slow down to 2.1% in both the EU and the Euro-area.
- Business federations are increasing concerned about a shortage of relevant skills in the EU, which is increasingly acting as a constraint on production capacity.
Risks to the outlook remain in particular in form of a high level of policy uncertainty, with the danger of increasing protectionism. As outlined in our in-depth analysis box 1, external IMF analyses suggest that a broader application of tariffs across countries could lower global output by about 1¾% after 5 years and by close to 2% in the long term.
In the longer term, it is clear that the EU’s underlying growth potential is too low, with the European Commission estimating that trend growth is 1.7% - thus well below current cyclical growth.
Policy-makers should now seize the moment to implement labour and product market reforms as well as institutional reforms that make EU economies more productive and resilient, and increase the EU’s potential for long-term growth and job creation. Given the emerging supply constraints, it is particularly important to address structural constraints to growth such as remaining barriers to investment and labour market mismatches. It is key to improve work-orientated learning for all age groups, including the promotion of digital skills, as well as reforms which help encourage people to stay longer in the workforce and ensure proper integration of legal migrants.
BusinessEurope main forecast
Publications
| Position papers | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| Reduction of the PRODCOM list from 8-digit to 6-digit level - a BusinessEurope position paper | 19/01/2017 |
| Public letters | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| Concerns about the SIMSTAT project - Letter from James Watson to Eurostat | 13/05/2016 | |
| Reduction of the PRODCOM list from 8-digit to 6-digit level - Letter from James Watson to Eurostat | 13/05/2016 |
Contact
