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Macroeconomic policy / 'Economic Outlook'

The Economic Outlook is our twice-yearly review of recent economic developments and projection of future economic developments. It is based on input from our member federations across Europe.

According to our Autumn 2019 Economic Outlook, the EU economy is experiencing an economic slowdown, reflecting declining global demand and uncertainties due to trade tensions:

  • Growth has been on a largely downwards trajectory through 2018 and 2019, dropping to just 0.2% (quarter-on-quarter) in Q2 2019 and 0.3% in Q3 2019;
  • For 2019 we expect GDP growth of 1.3% in the EU and 1.1% in the Euro-area, considerably lower than our spring forecast;
  • We expect growth to slow down slightly in 2020 to 1.2% in the EU and 1.0% in the Euro-area.

As a consequence of trade tensions, European manufacturing output is down around 2% from its peak two years ago. Whilst strong wage rises and increasing employment are supporting domestic consumption, this is likely to fall as consumers become more cautious, acting as a brake on service sector growth.

Substantial risks to the economic outlook are concentrated on the downside due to the potential for escalation of trade tensions between both the USA and China and the USA and the EU, which would impact negatively on business, and the uncertainties that persist around a possible no-deal Brexit.

BusinessEurope main forecast

Publications

Press releases Date
EU faces economic slowdown due to trade tensions 07/11/2019
EU finance ministers must achieve breakthrough on EMU completion 12/06/2019
Escalating global trade tensions and skills shortages a risk for EU economy 05/11/2018
EU growth at risk of peaking 22/06/2018
EU’s economic recovery picks up momentum 06/11/2017
EU recovery continues despite challenges 20/10/2016
EU social partners should support reforms and growth to secure EU's social model 14/06/2016
Commission’s economic forecast underscores the need for policies supporting long-term growth 03/05/2016
"We must safeguard the EU economic recovery", Marcegaglia - BusinessEurope presents Economic Outlook at EU Tripartite Social Summit 14/10/2015
Reports and studies Date
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Autumn 2019 - EU economy weakens as trade tensions continue 07/11/2019
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Spring 2019 - EU growth falters 13/06/2019
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Autumn 2018 - EU growth to remain above trend 05/11/2018
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Spring 2018 - EU growth at risk of peaking 22/06/2018
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Autumn 2017 - The EU's economic recovery picks up momentum 06/11/2017
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Spring 2017 - The EU economic recovery continues 08/06/2017
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Autumn 2016 - EU recovery continuing despite Brexit vote 19/10/2016
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Spring 2016 - Political uncertainty dampening Europe's economic recovery 01/06/2016
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Autumn 2015 - Global risks underline need for reforms to 'lock in' the recovery 15/10/2015
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Spring 2015 - Policy action needed to make a temporary boost structural 29/04/2015
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Autumn 2014 - Strong policy choices needed to rebuild momentum 22/10/2014
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Spring 2014 - The recovery still needs securing 21/05/2014
Speeches Date
Macroeconomic dialogue meeting at political level, 11 March 2019 - Address by Markus J. Beyrer, BusinessEurope Director General 11/03/2019
Macroeconomic dialogue meeting at political level, 21 February 2017 - Address by Markus J. Beyrer, BusinessEurope Director General 22/02/2017
Macroeconomic dialogue meeting at political level, 7 November 2016 - Address by Markus J. Beyrer, BusinessEurope Director General 07/11/2016
Extraordinary macroeconomic dialogue at political level - Address by Markus J. Beyrer 14/06/2016
Macroeconomic dialogue meeting at political level, 11 February 2016 - Address by Markus J. Beyrer, BusinessEurope Director General 11/02/2016
Boosting convergence, jobs and growth: towards a strengthened role of social partners" - Address by BusinessEurope President Emma Marcegaglia at the EU Tripartite Social Summit 15/10/2015
Macroeconomic dialogue meeting at political level on 16 February 2015 - Address by Markus J. Beyrer, BusinessEurope Director General 16/02/2015
Macroeconomic dialogue at political level - Address by Emma Marcegaglia, President of BusinessEurope 07/07/2014
30th Macroeconomic Dialogue meeting at political level - Speech by Markus J. Beyrer 10/03/2014
Position papers Date
Reduction of the PRODCOM list from 8-digit to 6-digit level - a BusinessEurope position paper 19/01/2017
Facts and figures Date
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Spring 2016 - Political uncertainty dampening Europe's economic recovery 01/06/2016
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Autumn 2015 - Global risks underline need for reforms to 'lock in' the recovery 15/10/2015
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Spring 2015 - Policy action needed to make a temporary boost structural 29/04/2015
BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Autumn 2014 - Strong policy choices needed to rebuild momentum 22/10/2014
Public letters Date
Concerns about the SIMSTAT project - Letter from James Watson to Eurostat 13/05/2016
Reduction of the PRODCOM list from 8-digit to 6-digit level - Letter from James Watson to Eurostat 13/05/2016

Contact

James Watson

Director
Tel:
+32 2 237 65 15
Last updated: 8 November 2019