Macroeconomic policy / 'Economic Outlook'

The Economic Outlook is our twice-yearly review of recent economic developments and projection of future economic developments. It is based on input from our member federations across Europe.

Our Autumn 2018 Economic Outlook highlights that despite the recent slowdown, businesses still expect EU growth to proceed above its long-term rate.

• We expect EU growth of 2.2% for 2018 and 2.0% for 2019, a slight downward revision of -0.2 pp and -0.1 pp from our spring projections.

• Skills shortages are an acute concern for employers and limit growth, even in member states with still relatively high unemployment, as digitalisation is rapidly increasing the demand for skilled technical workers.

• Businesses see the danger of an escalating trade war as a key risk, with the IMF estimating that such an escalation would reduce global GDP by almost one percent in 2020.

In an in-depth section on digitalisation we conclude that, contrary to what is often argued, new technologies such as robotisation and artificial intelligence are likely to increase rather than reduce the overall demand for labour.