Macroeconomic policy / 'Economic Outlook'
The Economic Outlook is our twice-yearly review of recent economic developments and projection of future economic developments. It is based on input from our member federations across Europe.
The EU economy is facing a very difficult period. Whilst some services sectors are continuing to benefit from further reopening following COVID, many industrial sectors have seen output hit by continuing global supply chain problems and are suffering due to rising energy and raw material prices.
Overall, we forecast the EU economy to grow by 2.6% between 2021 and 2022 (a downward revision of 1.3% from our Autumn forecast). But ‘within year’ growth in 2022 is expected to be just 0.6%, raising the prospect that individual EU Member States may experience at least ‘technical recessions’ during 2022.
We anticipate Euro Area inflation of 6.5% in 2022, falling to 2.6% in 2023. But this will depend upon a fall in energy prices and moderate wage increases amidst a very tight labour market. Our forecast suggests EU growth could reach 2.1% in 2023, although there are significant downside risks to such a figure.
Publications
| Position papers | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| Reduction of the PRODCOM list from 8-digit to 6-digit level - a BusinessEurope position paper | 19/01/2017 |
| Public letters | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| Concerns about the SIMSTAT project - Letter from James Watson to Eurostat | 13/05/2016 | |
| Reduction of the PRODCOM list from 8-digit to 6-digit level - Letter from James Watson to Eurostat | 13/05/2016 |
