Macroeconomic policy / 'Economic Outlook'
The Economic Outlook is our twice-yearly review of recent economic developments and projection of future economic developments. It is based on input from our member federations across Europe.
According to our Autumn 2019 Economic Outlook, the EU economy is experiencing an economic slowdown, reflecting declining global demand and uncertainties due to trade tensions:
- Growth has been on a largely downwards trajectory through 2018 and 2019, dropping to just 0.2% (quarter-on-quarter) in Q2 2019 and 0.3% in Q3 2019;
- For 2019 we expect GDP growth of 1.3% in the EU and 1.1% in the Euro-area, considerably lower than our spring forecast;
- We expect growth to slow down slightly in 2020 to 1.2% in the EU and 1.0% in the Euro-area.
As a consequence of trade tensions, European manufacturing output is down around 2% from its peak two years ago. Whilst strong wage rises and increasing employment are supporting domestic consumption, this is likely to fall as consumers become more cautious, acting as a brake on service sector growth.
Substantial risks to the economic outlook are concentrated on the downside due to the potential for escalation of trade tensions between both the USA and China and the USA and the EU, which would impact negatively on business, and the uncertainties that persist around a possible no-deal Brexit.
BusinessEurope main forecast
Publications
| Position papers | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| Reduction of the PRODCOM list from 8-digit to 6-digit level - a BusinessEurope position paper | 19/01/2017 |
| Public letters | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| Concerns about the SIMSTAT project - Letter from James Watson to Eurostat | 13/05/2016 | |
| Reduction of the PRODCOM list from 8-digit to 6-digit level - Letter from James Watson to Eurostat | 13/05/2016 |
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