BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Spring 2016 – Political uncertainty dampening Europe’s economic recovery
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Released on 1 June 2016, BusinessEurope Spring Economic Outlook shows that the modest economic recovery in the EU and Euro-area is expected to continue. Overall, we expect growth to reach 2.0% in the EU and 1.7% in the Euro-area in 2016. Growth in 2017 is forecast to remain broadly unchanged from 2016 with 1.9% in the EU and 1.7% in the Euro-area.
However the report also stresses that a number of global and domestic issues are contributing to uncertainty which is weighing on business confidence and in many cases leads to firms postponing investment decisions. It is therefore essential that policy measures which can increase economic growth, particularly around product and labour market reforms, are pursued with vigour.
A special feature of the report looks at the Schengen agreement, under pressure through the high recent influx of refugees, and finds that fragmentation would undermine confidence, significantly reduce EU growth, and put the ongoing recovery at risk.
Individual country evaluations
| Real GDP growth % | Inflation % | Unemployment % | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2016 | 2017 | 2016 | 2017 | |
| EU28 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 8.6 | 8.2 |
| Euro-area | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 9.7 | 9.4 |
| Austria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 |
| Belgium | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| Cyrpus | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 14.5 | 14.0 |
| Estonia | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 6.8 |
| Finland | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 9.4 | 9.3 |
| France | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 9.7 | 9.8 |
| Germany | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Greece | -0.7 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 24.0 | 22.8 |
| Ireland | 4.6 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 8.4 | 7.6 |
| Italy | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 11.6 | 11.1 |
| Latvia | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 8.9 | 8.4 |
| Lithuania | 2.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 8.6 | 8.3 |
| Luxembourg | 3.4 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Malta | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| Netherlands | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Portugal | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 11.7 | 10.9 |
| Slovak Republic | 2.5 | 2.7 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 10.5 | 9.7 |
| Slovenia | 1.8 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 8.8 | 8.4 |
| Spain | 2.7 | 2.5 | -0.4 | 1.5 | 20.0 | 18.1 |
| Bulgaria | 2.0 | 2.5 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| Croatia | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 15.1 | 13.8 |
| Czech Republic | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Denmark | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| Hungary | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 5.2 |
| Poland | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Romania | 4.2 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| Sweden | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 7.2 | 6.6 |
| United Kingdom | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| Norway | 0.6 | 1.1 | n.a. | n.a. | 4.8 | 4.5 |